Saturday, August 01, 2009

Climate skeptic trumps British Met office with accurate medium-range forecast

The official Met office predicted a "BBQ summer" but July in Britain has in fact been wet and miserable -- which doesn't say much for the usefulness of the models they rely on, particularly since they have got it wrong 3 years a in a row. Private forecaster and climate skeptic Piers Corbyn works from different assumptions, enabling much more accurate prediction

In response to the question 'Does the technology exist?' to do the 'seasonal forecasting' the Met office find so hard. Piers said: "It is not a matter of technology but of the application of Physics and equations. Just as computer models of the economy fail so does the Met office approach to long range forecasting. We can predict in detail months ahead how solar particle and magnetic effects modulated by the moon cause the Jet stream - the tracks of lows - to shift. That is the key to weather type change prediction in Britain & Ireland."

He read out his WeatherAction summer forecast headline (see below) issued on 22 February which well describes the summer so far - and said it also gave more detail in 13 weather periods through the summer which were developed into 27 weather periods in the monthly forecasts. This contrasted dramatically with the Met Office 'barbecue summer' forecast issued in April - which made no attempt to identify sub-periods - and their recent meandering admissions of failure.

Piers said key points about his Solar Weather Technique (SWT) of long range forecasting are available on the web and more would come but some investors were countenancing against that. Philip Avery of BBC/Met Office then commented "Yes, because they make money". In response to this admission by the Met Office that there is merit in WeatherAction forecasts Piers said: "Yes, more will be published but you and governments will not welcome it because it will pull the rug from under your belief in man-made global warming. The world is now cooling and we can explain why."

Afterwards Piers said:

"Our summer forecast under SWT25d has gone excellently. We are especially pleased with the DETAIL in July (see below). Our month ahead forecast graph issued at end of June specifically predicted that Tuesday 28th July would be the best day in the S/E for a while, which it was.

We said the period 29th-31st would be a 'TOP Extra Activity' Red Weather Warning period with High Whirlwind/tornado risk and that during this period a month's worth of rain was likely in a few hours in places. "These extremes have been realised. Some western parts were hit by 60mm of rain on 29th and whirlwind / tornado events hit Scotland and Western parts with floods in places.

We issue weather warnings over forty days ahead while the Met Office often finds it hard to make them four hours ahead. "It's a pity that Climate campers don't feel able to use our forecasts and are getting drenched once again because their dogmatic belief in the unbelievable provided by their mates in the Met Office means they cannot make weather-wise plans. I hope soon that real climate Karma will run over their Dogma!"


British police goons out in force to attack the innocent again

Polite enquiries of an accused person are a thing of the past. A suburban housewife is treated like a gang of armed desperadoes without the slightest attempt to talk to her first. But if you get your car stolen they just yawn

When Anisa Borsberry confronted a group of playground bullies she hoped it would finally bring an end to her 11-year-old daughter’s ordeal. But the next day she found she herself was the victim . . . with the forces of law and order lined up against her. Eight police officers in three patrol cars and a van descended on her home and arrested her.

The 40-year-old was marched out in handcuffs even though a claim that she had hit one of the bullies had already been withdrawn. She then had her fingerprints and DNA taken and was thrown into a cell for more than five hours.

‘I was speechless when I heard what I was supposed to have done,’ she said yesterday. ‘I couldn’t understand why I was in this situation. I knew I had done nothing wrong and was totally innocent. ‘The children had already admitted lying but yet here were two statements they had made to the police after their parents had made a complaint.

‘When the police came to arrest me they dragged me outside where the whole street could see me. Eight officers went round the back of the house, I assume in case I tried to escape. ‘It was like a scene from a movie. The only thing that was missing was a police helicopter. ‘It was a shocking waste of taxpayers’ money.’

Last night police dropped the case and said they had launched an investigation into the arrest.

Mrs Borsberry went to Lambton Primary School in Washington, Tyne and Wear, earlier this month after her daughter Taylor arrived home in floods of tears. She asked one of the bullies why she had called Taylor names at the school gates that morning. ‘My daughter stood by my side the whole time holding my hand,’ she said. ‘Half way through a boy who had been involved in upsetting Taylor decided to shout and scream abuse at me, including the F-word.’ Mrs Borsberry immediately reported the incident to Taylor’s teacher. But when she rang the school later that day to check on her daughter she was told that the bullies had accused her of assault.

‘After interviewing the children on a one-to-one basis the children all admitted lying and said they had made the whole thing up,’ said Mrs Borsberry. ‘The school even rang their parents and informed them that the allegations were false.’ But the children’s parents complained and police arrived to take Mrs Borsberry from her home in Washington to Gilbridge police station. She was interviewed at length and finally released on bail at about midnight.

Last night a Northumbria Police spokesman said: ‘The complaint of assault is not being progressed, so there will be no further police action taken against this woman. We have received a letter of complaint from the arrested woman and will be carrying out a full review of all of the circumstances before making a response.’


It can happen: Muslim hate speech can be prosecuted in Britain!

But no 7 years in jail for him. Just a small fine

An Asian man who called police officers "white redneck hooligans" has been found guilty of making racist remarks. He made the remarks after police arrested his brother, dentist Omer Butt, in a row over parking. Butt turned up at the scene on Parr Lane, Unsworth, Greater Manchester, at 11.30am on October 21 last year, shortly after his brother was taken away by police.

Pc Christian Allanson overheard Butt say loudly into his mobile phone: "'I'm just here with these white redneck hooligans'." He told the court Butt also said: "'Where's my brother, you're not the Gestapo'."

Pc Allanson said: "I felt very offended by this comment. I felt it was clearly a comment made towards myself and the other officers present due to the fact we were white police officers. I believe it was a very offensive comment."

Butt also taunted officers by asking if they were BNP members, prosecutor Richard Stone told the one-day trial at Bury Magistrates Court last Thursday. He also asked officers who arrested and searched him: "Do you like feeling Pakis up?"

Butt, defending himself, admitted he used the words Paki and Gestapo and accepted he used the word hooligan, and possibly the word white, but denied calling the police rednecks.

Judge Baker told him: "You demonstrated towards the officers hostility based on their membership of a racial group." Butt, of Copthorne Lane, Cheetham Hill, Manchester, was fined £200 and ordered to pay £100 costs and a victim surcharge of £15.

Judge Baker added: "I take seriously any form of racist abuse and feel the courts must strive to protect people."

Butt has previously admitted feeding untruths to journalists in order to "cash in" and having plans to write an autobiography called Leaving Al Qaida: Inside The Life And Mind of A British Jihadist.


British school pupils suspended for assaults 90,000 times last year, figures show

A further 98,000 suspensions were given for verbal abuse or threatening behaviour towards adults and other pupils. The number of pupils aged five and under who were permanently expelled rose to 90 last year - an increase of 50 per cent. At the same time, the number of days for which the most serious offenders were removed from the classroom dropped.

The Conservatives said that the Government figures, which were released yesterday [THURS], showed that there was still a "serious problem with discipline" in schools.

The number of suspensions given to primary school pupils for attacking teachers rose by five per cent, from 6,710 in 2006/07 to 7,090 in 2007/08.

Nick Gibb, the shadow schools minister, said "There is a serious problem with discipline and poor behaviour in English schools. "We need to give teachers more powers to discipline children, so that they can nip problems in the bud before they spiral out of control."

The figures show that in all, there were 89,200 suspensions from schools for assaults last year. This was a fall of 8,570, or 8.8 per cent, on the previous year. Meanwhile the number of suspensions for verbal abuse or threatening behaviour totalled 97,880. This was a fall of 8,090, or 7.6 per cent, on the previous year. However, the figures also showed that the number of suspensions lasting more than seven days - typically given to punish the most seriously misbehaving children - had been cut dramatically. [More likely to indicate greater leniency than better behaviour]

While last year 36,220 suspensions - 8.5 per cent of the total - lasted for more than seven days, this year just 9,650, or 2.5 per cent of the total, did. The length of the average suspension has been slashed by almost 20 per cent, the figures showed.

Dawn Primarolo, the children's minister, said: "It is positive to see the rate of exclusions decreasing indicating that behaviour in our schools is getting better. "It is time to put to bed the myth that behaviour is deteriorating with teachers powerless to act."


Cervical smear surgery 'given needlessly' to women with borderline results

Many women with borderline results are given invasive treatment which increases their chances of suffering complications in future pregnancies

Hundreds of women may undergo unnecessary surgery after cervical smear tests, it has emerged. Many women with borderline results are given invasive treatment which increases their chances of suffering complications in future pregnancies. A study in the British Medical Journal found many of these treatments are entirely pointless, as there may be no tumour, or it may so small that it would disappear naturally.

Some 2,700 women are diagnosed with cervical cancer every year, and around 1,000 die.

The NHS screens women aged 25 and above for signs of pre-cancerous cells that may develop into tumours. It claims screening saves around 4,500 lives a year. Many women with positive results are referred for a procedure known as a 'colposcopy' to carry out a more detailed investigation. In many cases lesions are found, and the patients are sent for an operation to remove abnormal tissue - even though it may not be cancerous.

Some doctors argue the operation should only happen if a biopsy proves it is cancerous. The BMJ research found that for those whose tests reveal only mild changes or borderline results, invasive treatment can do more harm than good.

The study concluded that while the colposcopy detected more serious lesions (known as cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or CIN) it could lead to overtreatment, because they could sometimes return to normal of their own accord.

The study of more than 4,000 British women aged 20-59 whose results showed borderline or mild abnormalities also revealed a higher rate of after-effects. These included pain, bleeding and complications in later pregnancies.

The study's authors stated: 'We conclude that there is no clear benefit of a policy of immediate colposcopy as although it detects more CIN grade II or more severe disease, it leads to a large number of referrals with no high-grade CIN, overtreatment with associated after effects in young women, and no clear psychological benefit.'


British immigration into Australia

I imagine that Israel still tops the league by far when we look at the proportion of people living in a country who were not actually born in that country. Even apart from millions of Russians and a few Americans out of a total population of about 6 million, Israel has a couple of hundred thousand illegals from Islamic countries living there too -- surprising though that no doubt will be to most non-Israelis. And if you count illegals, America is once again a nation with a lot of immigrants too. But the figures below probably put Australia second to Israel in proportion of non-native-born. Not mentioned below is that the Australian population total is just over 20 million and about 10% of those are East Asian, mostly Han Chinese, in ancestry.

Although there is no doubt that Australians and Britons have proudly different cultures and traditions and are not slow to say so, the differences are in absolute terms quite small, particularly when we realize that there is a great deal of diversity within Britain itself. So that someone from the Home Counties (say) who visits Australia will experience a transition not unlike visiting Yorkshire, though with much better weather and greater prosperity, of course.

So the fact that over a million out of 20 million Australians were actually born on the other side of the world in Britain should be no surprise. They could almost be in just another region of England. Again something unmentioned below, however, is that the immigrant Brits in Australia are mostly from North of Watford. That information will mean nothing to most of the world but Brits sure know what it means. Putting it formally, it means that most British immigrants are from regional England rather than metropolitan England

Nearly 60 per cent of Australia's population growth is from migration, and the United Kingdom still remains the greatest source of new emigrants. New Australian immigration statistics have shown that Britons make up the greatest amount of migrants to Australia.

The latest Australian immigration figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows 5.5 million Australians, or around a quarter of the population, were born overseas.

Around 213,000 people migrated to Australia in 2007/08, that is 60 per cent of the nation's population growth, and the majority of the new arrivals (60 per cent) were aged between 15 and 34.

The United Kingdom is greatest source with 1.2 million people who were born in Britain now living in the country after emigrating to Australia.

The figures show people from more than 200 countries resettled in Australia in 2007/08 with New Zealand, China, India and Italy also high on the list as sources of migrants to Australia.

The most popular state destination for people arriving from overseas was NSW, although Queensland is the most popular choice in terms of domestic migration.

More than 360,000 Australians moved interstate in 2007/08 with people aged 20 to 34 representing about 40 per cent of that figure.


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